Crisil

Crisil has released an analytical review of the Reserve Bank of India’s updated bank group guidelines, offering insight into how the regulatory changes may influence credit quality, risk management, and governance standards across the financial sector. The revised framework seeks to strengthen oversight of banking groups, enhance transparency, and tighten control over intra-group exposures. Crisil’s assessment highlights the potential benefits for systemic resilience while acknowledging the operational adjustments banks will need to implement.

India’s oil marketing companies (OMCs) are set for a substantial rebound in profitability in FY26, with Crisil estimating a nearly 50% surge driven by healthier marketing margins, stable crude oil prices and improved demand fundamentals. The sector, which has weathered volatile global energy markets and regulatory pressures, is expected to benefit from moderated input costs and a more predictable pricing environment. As consumption of petrol, diesel and aviation turbine fuel continues to rise, OMCs may experience stronger cash flows, reduced debt burdens and enhanced financial stability.

According to the latest Crisil report, India Inc recorded moderate revenue growth and mixed profitability trends in Q2 FY26, reflecting evolving market dynamics. While companies benefited from recovery in domestic demand and operational efficiencies, margin pressures persisted due to rising input costs, competitive pricing, and macroeconomic uncertainties. Sectors such as IT services, FMCG, and renewable energy showed resilience, whereas capital-intensive industries faced profitability compression.

Crisil has projected a 12% growth in bank credit for FY26, reflecting a stable credit demand outlook driven by retail, corporate, and infrastructure lending. However, the rating agency highlighted emerging concerns, including rising non-performing assets (NPAs), tightening monetary policy, and potential global economic headwinds. While credit expansion supports economic growth and investment activity, Crisil urges banks and regulators to monitor asset quality, interest rate risks, and sectoral vulnerabilities.

Crisil, India’s leading credit rating and research agency, has forecast a moderation in the country’s inflation trajectory, projecting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to ease to 3.2% by 2026. The outlook reflects expectations of stable commodity prices, improved supply chain efficiencies, and calibrated monetary policies. While core inflation pressures persist, Crisil anticipates a gradual normalization driven by a combination of disciplined fiscal measures and strengthening domestic production.

India’s capital expenditure cycle, which has been a key driver of economic resilience and growth, may face headwinds as the United States imposes higher tariffs on Chinese goods. A recent analysis by Crisil highlights that while India stands to gain from potential supply chain diversification, the indirect effects of a slowdown in global trade and heightened input costs could weigh on the pace of domestic investment. The report underscores the need for policy support and sectoral agility to safeguard India’s capex momentum amid an increasingly volatile global trade environment.

India’s telecom sector is poised for a profitability boost, as rising data consumption and stable pricing trends drive revenue growth, according to Crisil. Analysts highlight that strong subscriber engagement, expansion of 4G and 5G networks, and increasing smartphone penetration are key contributors to the improved financial outlook. While operational costs remain a consideration, telcos are expected to benefit from higher average revenue per user (ARPU) and economies of scale.

Crisil has forecast that India’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation will average 4% in the current fiscal year, offering a measure of relief for policymakers and households alike. This projection suggests inflation could align closely with the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target, after years of volatility driven by global supply shocks and domestic food price surges. A stable inflation trajectory not only strengthens consumer purchasing power but also allows monetary authorities greater room to sustain growth-friendly interest rates.

After two years of double-digit price appreciation, India’s residential real estate market is expected to enter a phase of steady, moderate growth. According to Crisil Ratings, housing prices are projected to rise by 4–6% over the medium term, while demand, measured in volume, is likely to increase by 5–7%. Though supply is set to outpace demand slightly—raising inventory levels—developers are expected to maintain healthy financial profiles, backed by strong cash flows and reduced leverage.

Thomas Cook (India) Ltd has received a significant boost in market credibility with CRISIL upgrading its long-term and corporate credit ratings to ‘AA/Stable’—the highest in the company’s history. This milestone comes on the back of robust financial performance in FY25, marked by an 11% year-on-year revenue increase to ₹8,251 crore, fueled largely by travel segment momentum.